This daily synthesis of the Public Health data is provided by Will Daugherty of Pacific Science Center. Thanks Will!
Public Health has updated the data dashboard. As of 11:59 pm yesterday, May 28, there were 8,006 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in King County. Public Health says that this is 29 more than the previous day.* There have been 554 confirmed deaths in King County due to COVID-19, 6.9% of all confirmed cases. The numbers that Public Health reports each day include delayed results from previous days.
The three graphs below chart new cases, total case count and the logarithmic trajectory of cases.
The first graph shows new cases (blue bars) and the 7-day average (red line). Of the 29 new cases reported today, 16 were confirmed yesterday and the remaining 13 were confirmed in previous days. The 7-day average of new cases per day peaked at 193 on April 1. The average for the last 7 days is now 34 new cases per day, the lowest level since March 10. The 7-day average has declined 27% in the last week and 47% in the last two weeks. If the rate of decline during the last two weeks continues, the 7-day average will be 10 on around June 24.
The second graph shows the total case count. With 8,006 total cases as of 11:59 pm yesterday, the compound daily growth rate during the last 7 days has been 0.43%, 18 basis points less than the 0.61% rate during the prior 7 days. With 8,006 cases, the daily growth rate must be less than 0.12% in order for the number of new cases per day to be less than 10.
The third graph shows the trajectory of cases in King County with the total number of cases on the horizontal axis and the new cases on the vertical axis. Each axis is on a logarithmic scale. Each blue dot represents a daily report. The dot farthest to the left is the February 28 report. Time passes from left to right as the total case count grows. The dot farthest to the right is today’s daily report. We can see a clear change in the trajectory since March 28, shortly after Governor Inslee’s “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order on March 23. The downward cascade of blue dots is quite pronounced for the last two weeks of data.
* I don’t understand why Public Health says that today’s case total is 29 higher than yesterday’s. Public Health reported 7,886 total cases yesterday. Today’s total of 8,006 is a change of 20, not 29. But it’s a minor detail.
Will Daugherty welcomes your questions and comments. His email is firstname.lastname@example.org