By the Numbers : public health report | Sun Nov 8

The image above is the graphic of today’s statewide numbers, as published in the Seattle Times each day.  Click here to see all the most recent news about the pandemic from the Times.

Otherwise, the rest of this post is our regular synthesis of the local countywide Public Health data, provided by Will Daugherty of Pacific Science Center.  Thanks Will!  


Update from Public Health – Seattle & King County

Public Health has updated the data dashboard.  The daily summary shows that there were 33,368 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in King County as of 11:59 on November 12, 798 more than the previous day.  There have been 828 confirmed deaths in King County due to COVID-19, 2.5% of all confirmed cases. The numbers that Public Health reports each day include delayed results from previous days.

Observations

The first graph below shows new cases (blue bars) and the 7-day average (red line).  Of the 798 cases reported yesterday, 483 new cases were confirmed yesterday and 315 were attributed to previous days.  The 7-day average of new cases per day peaked at 197 on April 1, fell to 37 on June 12, peaked again at 195 on July 25, and fell to 76 on September 21.  Since then it has risen to more than double the two prior peaks.  The average for the last 7 days is now 457 new cases per day, up from 333 a week ago.  The 7-day average has increased 37% in the last week and 92% in the last two weeks.

The key indicators that the State and County are using to make decisions about reopening include a measure of the total number of cases reported in the previous 14 days per 100K residents.  The target for this metric is less than 25.  The second and third graphs below show this metric.  The second graph goes back to March 12, the first day on which the metric could be reported.  The third graph provides a more detailed view of results in the last several weeks. 248.4 cases were reported per 100K residents during the 14-day period October 30 – November 12.  This is the highest level yet.

As of today, November 13, five of the eight key indicators are not meeting the targets established by the Washington State Department of Health.  The key indicators not meeting targets are:

  • Total number of cases for the last 14 days per 100,000 residents.
  • Effective reproductive (Re) number calculated by the Institute for Disease Modeling and Microsoft AI for Health team.
  • Rate of hospitalization per 100,000 residents in the past 14 days compared to the prior 14 days.
  • Rate of death per 100,000 residents in past 14 days compared to the prior 14 days.
  • Number of people tested for each positive result over the last 7 days.

Thank you for being curious.

-Will

Will Daugherty welcomes your questions and comments.  His email is wdaugherty@pacsci.org

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